To quote myself from coverage earlier this week, in case you hadn’t read it all the way to the end: “Had Democrats ever fought as hard for every single vote as Republicans always do in any election that even approximates being close, President Gore or President Kerry would likely have ensured a very different judicial balance on [the U.S. Supreme Court] by now.”
Thanks to the tremendous work by TheUptake.org, I’ve been hypnotized for hours at a time this week by live video coverage from the Coleman/Franken U.S. Senate election contest in MN, via their live feed from the courtroom, attorney pressers and “post game” analysis each day. Their coverage, as citizen journalists, has been exceptional each day, and MN, as well as the nation, owes them a big thanks. The work of the TheUptake.org is the very prototype of “what’s to come” in news coverage as we move forward into the brave new century.
[Disclosure: VelvetRevolution.us, an organization co-founded by The BRAD BLOG, has contributed in the past to TheUptake.org. Also: TheUptake.org needs funding to continue what they’re doing! Please help them here if you can!]Watching their coverage, and the various findings from the 3-judge panel in St. Paul this week, has both made my brain hurt, and made clear again what I’ve quoted myself noting above: Republicans will say anything, do anything, make any legal arguments — no matter how much in wild contradiction with their very own previous statements and positions — that they need, in order to fight for every vote they think they earned (and even many they know they didn’t. In the bargain, nobody has called them cry-baby, tin-foil hat wearing sore losers or conspiracy theorists, and their strategy has already resulted in political gains (Al Franken, the apparent winner of the election by 225 votes, has not been able to offer his Democratic vote in the U.S. Senate while the trial continues), and could, if miracles and/or SCOTUS happens, result in an overturned election. Though that much remains very much a long shot.
While many of the GOP tactics here have been reprehensible, their strategy, of fighting for every single vote, is to be commended. The Democrats should — but probably won’t — learn from it.
With all of that in mind, and in hopes again of not going too far into weeds, which is tough not to do (see our recent previous coverage, here, here and here, for example), what follows is my best stab at a very quick summary of the most notable events and rulings, etc. out of Minnesota this week.
Also, my audio interview with TheUptake’s Senior Political Correspondent, Noah Kunin, from Minneapolis, as taped during my weekly Friday appearance on last night’s Peter B. Collins Show, is also posted below…
• The contracting and expanding “ballot universe”: At mid-week, the 3-judge panel ruled [PDF] that evidence may be examined for the possible counting of some 4,797 ballots which Coleman would like counted. That, down from the 11,000 or so that he’d hoped for originally. Both sides claimed “victory” from the decision and, as so far only Coleman’s team has presented their case, Franken’s will also get a shot at expand the “ballot universe” with nearly 800 ballots that they would also like included as candidates for possible counting.
FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver, however, believes the absentee ballots are unlikely to save Coleman, because even if all of his ballots were allowed to be counted (a very big “if”, since Coleman still has to make the case in court that they should be), it would be very difficult for him to gain the 226 net votes he’d need to overcome Franken’s certified lead.
Not only that, but TheUptake’s Noah Kunin did his own study of ballots in that universe, and concludes, based on the known voting patterns in the race, a count of all of those ballots would likely result in an 85 net vote gain for Franken!. And that universe doesn’t even yet include the ballots that Franken wants added in!
(See the end of this article, for our interview with Kunin.)
• Franken goes to the MN Supremes: Franken’s attorneys were in the MN Supreme Court on Thursday, seeking a “provisional” certificate so that he could be “temporarily” seated. The basis of their argument is that federal law, or, rather, the U.S. Constitution in this case, trumps the state law which disallows final certification of the election until all contests — and subsequent appeals, as the Coleman team was quick to add — are settled back in the state. Franken argued that the Constitution requires 2 U.S. Senators to be seated, and that MN can’t simply “opt out” of the Constitution.
Here’s the UpTake’s video coverage of the arguments and questioning. And here’s TPM’s reportage thereof.
My take: Based on his legal arguments, and the questioning from the justices, I’d be shocked if the MN Supremes gave Al what he came a lookin’ for. No word yet on when the decision will come down.
• Speaking of Franken: We heard from him on Thursday — for the first time since the state canvassing board certified results showing he had received 225 more votes than Coleman — in an op-ed offering kudos to MN’s process (appropriately), referring to himself as “Senator-elect” and hinting that, um, he would like to be seated now.
• Ballots Found!: 3 ballots, not counted in the post-election hand-count, were found in Anoka County (all for Norm Coleman), which explains why 3 votes were otherwise missing previously, as compared to the Election Night totals there. And late on Friday afternoon, the Coleman camp — via an announcement from shameless FL-2000 Bush v. Gore’s Coleman shill, Ben Ginsberg — claimed that 2, never counted, unopened ballots were “found” in Washington County.
Quips TPM’s Eric Kleefeld in response: “This election gives you an idea of what it would be like if lawyers conducted autopsies, instead of doctors. They could just keep on arguing long enough for decomposition to set in, anyway.”
• Coleman Shooting Self In Head Over ‘3-A’ Ballots?: There’s a category of ballots which has become known as “3-A” because they were in the third, out of five piles, created when the counties were asked to re-examine all rejected absentee ballots to make sure they met one of the four legal reasons to reject such ballots (the fifth pile contained all that didn’t meet one of the four criteria, so were inappropriately rejected). The third pile was for absentee ballots for which there was no corresponding registration form, since MN allows same day registration both at the polls, and via absentee.
However, it’s become known that some of the absentee voters may have improperly placed their registration form inside the secrecy envelope for ballot itself, but there’s no way to know for sure without likely exposing the secret ballot. For the rest, I’ll let Kleefeld do the heavy lifting, but it seems that even if those ballots are added to the “universe”, as Coleman would like, the results may not even end up favoring Coleman.
• Coleman: Count the Felon’s Vote!: By way of demonstrating just how hypocritical some of Coleman’s arguments have been (including arguments to include many ballots that they’d previously argued to reject during the post-election hand-count phase), there was one rejected absentee ballot, that Coleman would now like counted, which came from a guy in jail. He was sent a ballot for the county he was serving time in, instead of his actual county of residence, so the ballot was rejected. And in either case, convicted felons aren’t allowed to vote in MN. But Coleman wants it counted. Notes Kleefeld: “just imagine the media outcry that would have occurred if a Democrat were waging an election lawsuit and tried to get this one counted.”
• How much longer will this go on?: Yes, it’s possible that Norm Coleman could the head Election Official from every single one of MN’s 87 counties. He could also argue to call as a witness, every one of the 4,797 voters whose rejected absentees are now in the universe. I’d like to think the court won’t allow that, but, rather, will come up with some way soon to limit these proceedings a bit.
But, the Star-Tribune looked at the question, and concluded: “Although no one can say for sure how long the trial will run, the evidence so far — circumstantial though it is — suggests that lawn mowers may replace snow shovels by the time it’s over.”
• Interview with TheUptake’s Kunin:: As mentioned, citizen journalist, TheUptake’s Senior Political Correspondent Noah Kunin, whose been doing a bang-up job of covering the case from the courtroom every day, joined us on the PBC Show last night to discuss all of the above, the provenance of the The UpTake, as well as his own experience having learned this week that he too was one of the rejected absentee voters!
I’ve cut down the hour to just my own discussion with PBC about the latest goings on in MN, along with Kunin who joins us thereafter. You can download the MP3 here, or listen online below (appx 30 mins, and thanks to Green960 for the original commercial-free archive!)…
[audio:http://bradblog.com/audio/PeterBCollins_NoahKunin_Brad_020609_edited.mp3]
Wow—many thanks for the updates and summary! It’s odd, isn’t it, even with what appears to be a legitimate win in a legitimate election, the Democrat has to fight tooth and nail to get seated.
I continually wonder why all this money is being expended and time used up in the courts merely to appease a sore loser! Special rules and privilages for just REPUBLICANS? Ridiculous!
I’ll ask for the hundredth time this simple question.
Did Minnesota figure out how to not have ANY spoiled ballots or voided ballots or provisional ballots, because all that anybody talks about in this “universe” of contested ballots is the absentee ballots, and those other three categories are usually 2-3% of the total ballots cast and would SWAMP the number of absentee’s being contested.
Does ANYBODY know the answer to this simple question?
Good question Charlie L. In admiration of Minnahoota’s effort to have clean elections and remembering who helped move them there:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/10/25/198/10337
But as to wormies attempts to prolonging the obstruction of Al’s seating, maybe the MN judges and congress should remember this seating:
https://bradblog.com/?p=3325
And please do read the comments for more than fun!
But all in all I think Paul would be proud of We The People being on top of this fight!
@CharlieL: I’ll attempt to answer your question, although I admit I’m not an expert on the subject. I’m a Minnesotan who has been watching the feed on The UpTake and have considered the comments of those more ‘in the know’ than I am.
I watched MN Secretary of State Mark Ritchie’s address at the National Association of Secretaries of State (February 7, 2009). In his address, he said that there were approximately 1,000 ballots of the nearly three million ballots reviewed during the recount that were challenged by one of the two candidates. Of those nearly 1,000 ballots reviewed by the MN Canvassing Board (which included SoS Mark Ritchie), he stressed at least two times that there were only 14 ballots where the question of voter intent was not agreed upon unanimously by a 5-0 vote. (Those 14 ballots received a 3-2 vote and he said they fell either way, so did not favor one side over the other.)
Coleman has limited his challenge over those recounted ballots to the following issues: 1) so-called instances of double counting (which they still have not definitely proven), and 2) a missing envelope (marked #1 of 5) containing 133 ballots from a precinct in Minneapolis that election officials were unable to locate during the recount. The MN Canvassing Board chose to include those 133 ballots in the recount, using the count from the tape run from the vote tabulator from November 4th. (The numbers on the tape matched that of the sign-in roster + absentee. There was clear precedent to rule in this matter. The number of votes in those 133 ballots have already been factored in the current +225 Franken lead.)
Spoiled and voided ballots were considered as such during the recount. These would have been placed in a special envelope so would have been accounted for.
Minnesota has same day voter registration so there is NO provisional ballot.
So, as you can see, the ballots that were processed via the recount process have, by the most part, been considered so they are not part of the election contest. Coleman’s legal team is only questioning the so-called double-counting issue and the missing envelope from Minneapolis.
That leaves the absentee ballots that were rejected for one reason or another. Coleman’s only possibility to overtake Franken in the election contest lies in this pool of rejected absentee ballots. According to SoS Ritchie, Minnesota experienced a significant increase in absentee ballots in the 2008 election. In the 2008 election, he said that over 300,000 absentee ballots were submitted. Out of those 300,000, approximately 12,000 were rejected. Of those, election officials determined there were 1350 wrongly rejected. The Minnesota Supreme Court instructed that the 1350 wrongfully rejected absentee ballots be considered by the Canvassing Board, although the Court allowed the candidates to challenge ballots. The outcome of this rather controversial decision resulted in over 400 absentee ballots that were blocked by the candidates. Ritchie offered the opinion that these remaining wrongfully rejected absentee ballots will eventually be included in the count during contest phase.
The Coleman legal team has changed the number of rejected absentee ballots that they wish the Election Contest Court to review. That number has been referred to as ‘the universe.’ The number has been anywhere between the 12,000 maximum number to the 600+ that Team Coleman initially wanted considered. The number agreed upon by the Election Contest Court settled on a number just under 4800. Not ALL of those rejected absentee ballots will be accepted upon review. As we’ve seen, Coleman’s legal team now seems to want to throw out all the rules regarding accepting absentee ballots (e.g., without a proper voter registration, missing signature, arrived too late). Noah Kunin and Tomtech (regular participant on The UpTake live blog) have come up with a spreadsheet containing an analysis of Coleman’s “Improperly Rejected Absentee Ballot List” that provides an interesting breakdown of the 4800 ‘universe.’ You may want to check Tomtech’s diaries on The Daily Kos for his analysis. WineRev also provides a humorous yet detailed diary of the recount and election contest thus far.
I hope this helps. If anyone has something to add (or correct), I appreciate your input.
WobegonGal! Expertly done! Want a job?! 🙂
WObegonGal, that was helpful.
I would like some details on this text:
“Spoiled and voided ballots were considered as such during the recount.”
To me, that says… the ballots that were spoiled and voided would have been labeled “spoiled and voided” and nothing ever would have been done to consider whether or not they were PROPERLY voided and/or spoiled.
If his team knew ANYTHING about election fraud, Coleman wouldn’t raise any issues with voided or spoiled ballots because they generally favor Rethuglicans by about 4-1 or 5-1.
Franken’s team might not have made any questions about spoiled or voided ballots because he doesn’t believe in election fraud.
HOW MANY WERE THERE? The same 2-3% that generally occur in every single other election in America? If so, that’s where the real theft happened, as it does every time. Somehow, without any possible explanation, voided and spoiled ballots are 80-90% Democratic. Go figure.
So, this all sounds good, but can anybody give me aa count of how many ballots were “agreed” to be spoiled and voided.
Or, as is totally possible, because I do agree that the SoS in Minn. is perhaps the most honest and best in the country, did they actually manage to NOT have 2-3% spoiled and voided, and therefor, perhaps, just maybe, the first honest election in America in the last 10 years.
Inquring minds STILL want to know.
I’m pretty sure she’s referring to the ballots that voters themselves brought back to the poll workers to ask for a do-over. Those ballots have to be marked as void or spoiled and kept in order to make the number of votes, ballots and voters all reconcile properly.
The voters themselves declare those ballots void/spoiled.
@Agent 99: True. I served as an election judge in the 2008 election and I took the term ‘spoiled/voided’ as those ballots that the voter brought back to the table due to an error (e.g., double vote in a race). The voter may have noticed they made an error and wish to correct it. This can also happen in the event the scanner does not accept the ballot and it is kicked back out due to an error.
If this happens, the election judge working at the scanner reads the status regarding the ballot. If necessary, he or she asks the voter for permission to review their ballot to help them determine the error.
The voter is instructed to return to the person who is handing out the ballots to request a new ballot. The voter hands the spoiled ballot to the election judge who marks the ballot as spoiled and places it in a special envelope that contains all spoiled ballots. That envelope is turned into the city or county election officials on election night in addition to the sealed ballots that DID go through the scanner.
There is always a chance that the voter decides not to go back to get another ballot. I think Joe Mansky spoke to this during the election contest. The election judge can override an error and allow the ballot to be scanned and deposited into the sealed hopper. However, in the case of a double vote that race just wouldn’t be counted.
I guess I’m not certain what you mean, Charlie, by spoiled or voided ballots. Since all ballots completed in person are run through the scanner, there is an opportunity to fix errors right then and there. Note that the scanner will not kick out the ballot in the event of an undervote (i.e., the voter skipped the Senate race). This was the purpose of the recount as in some cases the scanner was unable to read the vote (for example, if the voter entered an ‘x’ or a small dot instead of completely filling in the oval). It was the purpose of the MN Canvassing Board to determine voter intent in those cases.
The most error-prone way to vote is, by far, completing an absentee ballot. There are specific reasons why an absentee ballot may be rejected (e.g., voter is not registered and did not include a voter registration form with their ballot, no signature, failure to have a MN resident serve as witness and sign, election officials unable to verify voter residence). Also, because the ballot is not run through the scanner until after the polls closed, there is no way for the voter to fix their ballot in the event of an error (e.g., double vote).
I have not seen any data on spoiled ballots (the ones collected in special envelopes on election night). I cannot say for certain, but it seems to me that someone at our precinct counted the total spoiled ballots and we entered that on the worksheet that we fill out at the end of the night. As the counted ballots are sealed for transport (using a sticker that is signed by all election judges on hand at closing), there shouldn’t be an opportunity for spoiled/voided ballots to be mixed in with the ‘good’ ballots.
I’m not sure if that answered your question. I apologize that I provided more than you perhaps required.
I think Minnesotans feel fairly certain that the election was fair. Poll workers represent the various political parties and all take an oath to work in a nonpartisan way. Could it be improved? Sure, since humans will always make mistakes. I have a lot of faith in MN SoS Mark Ritchie. He is an election protection advocate and I believe he would be the first to investigate any possible issues if there were any.
P.S. to Brad — Did you say ‘job’? Grin!
Two other comments and then I need to hit the hay.
I forgot to mention two things from MN Secretary of State Ritchie’s speech to the National Association of Secretaries of State. He stated that there were 300,000 absentee ballots cast in the 2008 election. This is TWICE as many as were cast in the 2006 election.
From the Strib: In D.C, Ritchie recount Senate recount work
Also, during the question and answer portion of Ritchie’s presentation, someone asked him for an update of the current status of the recount. This is where he stated his opinion that the 400+ wrongfully rejected absentee ballots would be included in the count. He also stated that his office believes the number of rejected ballots from ‘the universe’ that will be accepted for inclusion in the count to be around 100 ballots. So he was thinking around 500 ballots will be considered, the rest will remain rejected for legally-accepted reasons.
Here’s a link to Ritchie’s speech on CSPAN–> Video link.
Double Wow. Who would have thought that election details could be so fascinating? 😀
Thanks so much, WobegonGal!
And I take careful note, as I hope we all will, of this comment of yours:
Thanks, Lora!