In case you haven’t been able to keep up with the barrage of reporting here over the last 48 hours — concerning serious election irregularities in various races around the country — allow me to connect at least the dots that may well add up to a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate.
Now that challenger Jeff Merkley (D) has been declared the winner (at least by the media) over incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) in Oregon, the Democrats have currently been named the winners in enough elections U.S. Senate races that they will have at least 57 seats when President-elect Barack Obama takes office next January.
There remain, however, three U.S. Senate races still in serious contention, all of which, there is very good reason to believe, may end up going to the Democratic candidates if serious attention is given to issues of election integrity in each of those races. Setting aside whether or not a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate is a good or bad thing, the undecided races at this hour — in Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia — are quickly summarized below, along with links to more detailed coverage, for your convenience…
ALASKA: Ted Stevens (R-incumbent) v. Mark Begich (D)
Despite Stevens’ felony conviction on 7 counts, just days before the election, and some pre-election polls showing a likely victory for Begich, the final results — overseen by Gov. Sarah Palin’s friend and Lt. Governor — are being slow-walked and are revealing enormous irregularities, including a so-far inexplicable 11% decline in the turnout rate from the 2004 election.
While Alaska votes on paper, the votes are tabulated on faulty, hackable, and often inaccurate, Diebold op-scanners (more details on that below). The state has also been a long-time Diebold “company town,” as it’s one of the few places where the Democratic Party has actually fought for election integrity by suing the state for database records of how voters voted, following reported turnout rates of more than 200% in some areas in the state’s highly questionable 2004 election.
See our latest coverage here and from last night here.
MINNESOTA: Norm Coleman (R-incumbent) v. Al Franken (D)
At last count, just 443 votes separate the two candidates, out of some 2.5 million votes counted to date. An automatic manual recount has been triggered, and is now scheduled for mid-November. The state uses all paper ballots, but in much of the state they were counted on ES&S optical-scan systems which “reported inconsistent vote totals,” such that “The same ballots run through the same machines, yielded different results each time,†when the same machines were tested just before the election in Michigan.
Two of the three largest counties use the same Diebold op-scan machines which miscounted huge numbers of ballots in the January NH primary (among other elections), were used to hack a mock-election in HBO’s Emmy-nominated Hacking Democracy, and, by Diebold’s own admission, regularly drop thousands of votes when memory cartridges are uploaded to the central tabulator.
Some good news: MN’s Sec. of State Mark Ritchie has been one of a handful of Democratic state election chiefs to have been a long-time election integrity advocate.
GEORGIA: Saxby Chambliss (R-incumbent) v. Jim Martin (D)
The state uses Diebold touch-screen machines across the entire state. Every vote cast on one of those machines is a 100% unverifiable vote. Chambliss, was declared the victor in 2002 in an upset over incumbent Max Cleland (D), despite pre-election polls predicting a Cleland win. That was the year that the state used the Diebold touch-screens for the first time, and the year that Diebold themselves secretly patched all of the machines, just prior to the election, with uncertified software patches
This year, while untold numbers of voters may have been denied the right to cast votes at all, due to failures and slowdowns in the new Diebold e-registration computers on Election Day, Chambliss reportedly received 49.9% of the votes, triggering a runoff with Martin, now scheduled for December 2. We’ve also seen reports of inexplicable drops in turnout, comparable to Alaska’s, as mentioned above, though we’ve haven’t yet confirmed that. We’ll update this report when/if we are able to do so.
Unfortunately, given the Diebold voting system used by the state of Georgia (as implemented by previous Democratic Sec. of State and Diebold Cover Girl Cathy Cox), whatever numbers are reported by it and the Republican Sec. of State Karen Handel, who now oversees it, will have to be taken 100% on faith as being “accurate.”
If Democrats pay close attention to issues of election integrity in each of these three still-undecided contests, and insist on strict chain-of-custody and accounting for all ballots (voted, spoiled, and unvoted), memory cartridges, voting machines, and pollbooks, as well as full access and transparency for voting records, databases, election night poll tapes, and machine logs, I see no reason why they couldn’t end up with 60 fully filibuster-proof seats in the next U.S. Senate.
Thanks for your excellent investigations, Brad.
I agree we should all examine these 3 states under the microscope first — then the rest.
Sorry, Brad, but 60 is not a filibuster-proof majority, because there are Blue Dogs among them and Liberman. Perhaps, (PERHAPS!) if they got to 60 with Liberman being counted, they could boot him and make an offer to a moderate Republican who is up in 2010 or 2012 and would feel vulnerable to the many votes they would be required to take against the interests of the nation simply to toe the party line. Susan Collins comes immediately to mind, or perhaps Olympia Snow. The offer would have to include some serious financing and major committee seats. A moderate R who wanted to stay in the Senate might take that offer, rather than fight a multi-million dollar battle to save their seat down the road. The interim election in 3 months for Stevens’ seat is another opportunity.
It’s a long-shot, but not impossible, but getting “to 60” will absolutely NOT provide what they need to battle against politically-motivated, America-hating Rethuglicans in the Senate.
Without Darth Cheney at the helm, is it possible there will be some repubs voting with the Dems this time?
Is the GOP struggling to figure out what, exactly, it stands for now?
Maybe they won’t get over their well-deserved 2nd thumpin’.
If the Republicans continue to adopt the filibuster tactic that they have used in recent years to thwart and obstruct the legitimate business of the public citizenry,then Democrats should absolutely INSIST that they physically do so instead of invoking the “Harry Reid cave-in” as was done in the past.
The public will then get to see who the obstructionists really are and a political price will then be extracted.
I agree Steve B. I look forward to the first days of the new administration to see that change.
Considering the way Obama ran his campaign … his strong stance against Drama Queens … it should be an interesting year.
http://hubblesite.org/gallery/album/entire_collection/pr2004027a/
This assumes that Lieberman will stay on the blue side?
If so that’s a pretty freaking big assumption.
Agree with Steve B – I’ve never agreed with the parliamentary strategy of failing to bring bills out of committee because you know they will be filibustered. Make ’em do it out in the daylight! Preferably over and over and over!
Even if it amounts to the same thing in the end, they will be exposed as the anti-progress dirty tricksters that they are, and we can dispense with the laughable accusations that the dems are ineffective.
As I teach my kids, don’t fail to stand up for the truth just because you think the other guy is going to lie – make him do it out loud!
Democrats might want 60, but ordinary people have no desire for a last minute bald faced grab for power. It would be like running up the score in football or baseball, and not by playing, but by arguing with the referee… most decent people would find this doubly offensive to a spirit of sportsmanship.
I agree with Steve B. above about filibustering, also.
However, everyone seems to be forgetting that the number of Democratic senators still include president-elect Obama and vice-president-elect Biden (who won re-election to the senate in this very election!) These senate seats will be vacated when Obama and Biden take office and be subject to special elections which Republicans could conceivably win.
The eventual senate party make-up is not over yet by a long shot.
We need (and hopefully will get) new speakers in both the House and Senate. Ones that will whip the Dems into shape and force those Republicans who don’t cooperate with bills that have majority support to pay a heavy political price for each obstruction. We need to IMPLEMENT the solutions that Obama comes up with. America will NOT put up with Rethuglican obstruction and fillerbuster. They can get on board or get out of the way. We spent 8 years trying Rethuglican ideas, and they didn’t work out very well. NOW, we are going to try something new.
Brad: DO YOU SEND THIS INFORMATION/ADVICE TO THE DNC OR TO THE OBAMA ATTORNEYS? TELL THEM WHAT TO PROTECT?
PLEASE DO IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY!!
Ewastud #10
It is my understanding that the governor’s of Illinois and Delaware will appoint replacements for Obama and Biden. And even if this is not the case, if it is an actual re-election (which doesn’t seem reasonable, to campaign for this office in such a short span of time between now and inauguration) both of these states are solidly blue states. I can’t imagine either one would end up with an R as a replacement.
I’m tired of research and investigating…don’t we have enough data to know that machines do not belong in our election process, regardless if they are Diebold, Sequoia, ESS or whoever!!! This has been going on for years!! We need petitions, an organized push to get our congressmen to repeal/amend HAVA. Get rid of the machines. We don’t need machinery and private companies in our voting process. Go with paper ballots, pencil and oversight of counters by both/all parties, like Canada. We need language to support all registered eligible voters from voter suppression, caging, lies, intimidation. Offenders need to be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. It’s time for action!!!!
If I ain’t mistaken, the biggest late shift to Coleman in Minnesota occurred in solid blue (da iron range) St Louis County…WTF is that correct info?
Here’s CNN’s map of voting issues:
Isn’t it interesting that the majority of issues are being reported across the south….
GO check the Minnesota Secretary of state election site. It is beautifully crosstabulated. Unfortunately you can’t compare with previous weeks’ polling, but you can compare with previous general elections. You have presidential totals and senate totals and every other race by legislative district, state senate district, township, municipality, county, precinct, however you want it. What I see is a fairly typical result in 5A (Virginia, Mountain Iron, Eveleth) and 5B (Hibbing and Floodwood) but a little Republican shift going on in 6A (Ely-Kabetogama-Two Harbors-East Duluth), and in every case Dean Barkley’s total is almost entirely made up of Obama voters. Even allowing Barkley’s presidence, the Republican shift in 6A alone more than accounts for Coleman’s statewide margin. Overall, St. Louis County posts the exact same vote shares D-R for president for 2008 as it did four years ago — in other words, about 65 D to 33 R — but my sense is that Duluth is now the slightly more Democratic end of the county and the Range slightly less Democratic. The wedges the Republicans have used up here is “sportsmen’s rights”, motorized recreation, abortion, and alleged Democratic insensitivity to “natural resource” issues (i.e. claiming the system is rigged against loggers, claiming that mine permitting is too onerous). Basically it’s a more microtargeted version of the national Republican spiel against environmentalism, social liberalism and regulations.
If you want to formally compare with previous elections, results for every year back to 1998 are available in huge Excel files for each year, and so you can accurately compare every county, legislative district or precinct as you choose.
Overall Minnesota is simply not trending Democratic for statewide office and the presidency like the rest of the Midwest. The DFL for years was completely at sea; they now have their act together in the legislature but they’re still a mess in statewide elections. And don’t underestimate Pawlenty and Ventura’s effectiveness over the past decade in undermining the progressiveness of taxation in Minnesota and breeding the politics of resentment.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm
With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the latest election results show Obama leading by 65-57m votes (53-46%). But the tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004 (122.3m). Compare this to the 17m increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m). The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?
Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, the True Vote count would be approximately 80-62m (an increase of 15m for Obama and 5m for McCain). Obama’s current 8m margin would increase to 18m. This would be a landslide of major proportions (see the Election Calculator projection below).
But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau publishes its 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.
Obama must have done better than the 53-46% share as indicated by the Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The margin is probably closer to 55-43% (as projected by a few national pre-election polls). In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares.
The “Voted in 2004†category indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE 46 Bush/37% Kerry returning voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update – before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms. Changes to the “How Voted†mix of returning voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP were to the advantage of the GOP. The goal was to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election is no different. Landslide denied.
Wilburrr… Ya think President Obama would hire Brad as an election technology consultant…
& btw does anyone know who Brad voted for ?
The Democrats don’t WANT a filibuster-proof majority. Pelosi has already said they plan to rule from “the center” and they don’t want to have to explain why they won’t fund Al Gore’s infrastructure plan, won’t pull troops out of Southwest Asia, nor do anything on healthcare.
I don’t really care about the 60 vote supermajority. I just want the votes to be counted correctly. There is no way to convince me that Saxy Chambliss was ever really elected by the people of Georgia. And Alaska sounds very fishy. Minnesota sounds less fishy, but fishy enough. My prediction is that the state without a Republican partisan overseeing the election will end up sending Al Franken to the Senate and that the other two Republicans will squeak through. Georgia seems hopeless at this point. Maybe there’s hope that Alaska’s shenanigans will be exposed by a newly emboldened Democratic caucus in the legislature. We shall see. Six years of Chambliss sickens me, but maybe by 2014 Georgia will have wisened up and dumped the machines.
Franken gained another 100 votes, so now there’s 236 votes between Coleman and Franken. Calling it a typo, someone in one of the counties had typed in 24 instead of 124 votes for Franken.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/07/minnesota-senate-race-typ_n_142066.html
– Tom
Isn’t that bad for democracy? I wouldn’t want Democrats or Republicans as a united no opposition unit in congress. That’s not good for our freedoms and not good for government. Have the Democrats stopped the neocons from advancing their assault on us the people … NO! they were right there alongside with them every chance they got.
Some Republicans actually make sense like Ron Paul.
The 60 vote goal is a big deal since filibusters have increased in frequency in the last few years.
“In the fall of 2007, the 110th Congress’ 1st session broke the record, for filibuster cloture votes, topping 70 as of Nov 15, 2007. It is on track to triple the number of such votes in 2008’s 2nd session.”
Looks like Franken is 238 back now.
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/MyRacesRslts.asp?M=CUSTOM&Races=0103&mRefreshInterval=60
And 221 just ten minutes later….
I agree Mugzi #14. Time to focus on getting rid of the machines forever.
recounts begun in MN
Brad stated: We’ve also seen reports of inexplicable drops in turnout, comparable to Alaska’s, as mentioned above, though we’ve haven’t yet confirmed that.
Brad,
It’s possible that what appears to be lower turnout in 2008 in Georgia and Alaska can be alternately explained as having been an artifact of fraudulently inflated totals in earlier elections. The Alaska situation in particular seems to demand much more investigation.
Thanks for your fabulous and dogged work trying to keep our elections honest!
Best, Ray
FYI a replacement for Senator Joe Biden.
Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) will appoint Joe’s successor. The successor will serve until the next general election in 2010. The winner of that election will serve out the balance of the term. The front runner for the seat is the current Lt. Gov, John Carney (D). If appointed, he would probably win the seat in 2010. If Biden resigns before the end of the year, Carney could be appointed to the current Senate. If done early enough, Carney would acquire several weeks of Senate seniority in the session to start on Jan 5.
Pelosi Schmelosi! Decora, you should teach your kids that this is about a fair election, and people’s livelihoods; people’s very survival.
YOU ARE NOT A CENTER-LEFT NATION ANY MORE, however much you and La Pelosi might wish it were otherwise.
You should be utterly ashamed of yourself talking about this as a matter of a “power grab” and of “sportsmanship”. You know full well who the power-grabbers have been!
In any case, you have never known a centre-left government in the US – just a spectrum of right-wing governments.
As regards the filibustering, even in the event of missing the necessary majority, if the bill is important enough, the Dems should not hesitate to sue the so-called “nuclear option”.
Remember, the Democrats’ adversaries are the very ones who have run your country into the ground.
It hardly behoves the Democrats to be bipartisan when a blocked bill arises as a result of the Republicans’ misgovernment or indeed if Obama perceives its passing to be crucial to the country’s recovery. In those circumstances, I don’t believe Obama will cave, Pelosi notwithstanding.
Will Rogers the one that said, “I belong to no organized political party. I am a Democrat!”
if not him, surely someone like that said it.
The Democrats have not shown that they stick together historically. We’ll see if that is part of the change they bring as the majority party in both legislative chambers
Wilburrr… ~ I’m hoping for a Filibuster Proof Majority … I would expect that after this election republicans with kind any intellectual integrity would get religion … But I’m not bankin on it.