As we note on more than one occasion on today’s BradCast, buckle up! [Audio link to show is at bottom of article.]
Just days before the Presidential election, Democrats are in court in 6 different states attempting to preemptively block alleged “voter intimidation” schemes by Trump and the GOP, and today a federal judge slapped a restraining order on the Trump campaign and his operatives, to try and prevent it. (The order is now posted here [PDF].)
Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is just a narrow polling error away from defeating Hillary Clinton, according to the experts at FiveThirtyEight, who now find Trump’s chance of winning the Presidency to be about 1 in 3. So every vote will count — at least if it’s counted correctly.
Longtime non-partisan election integrity expert Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.org joins us to explain her startling new discovery of functionality built into computer vote tabulators — both touch-screen and paper-ballot systems in use in 99% of the nation’s jurisdictions — that, she says, would allow some votes to be weighted more than others in a way that would be nearly impossible to detect.
Harris details what she describes as “Fraction Magic” (see a real-time video demonstration here) and how that functionality, and its use by election insiders (or even outside hackers — as the U.S. Government continues to warn about), could determine the results of elections on Tuesday, from the Presidential level on down to local races and ballot initiatives.
This ability to fractionalize votes (for example, the functionality allows certain types of voters to have their votes weighted as 1.2 votes, while other votes are counted as just .8 of a vote, so the final results will still tally up to the correct number of votes cast), was originally discovered in the GEMS tabulation system, used with Diebold/Premier voting systems and, Harris explains, systems made by almost all of the other private vendors used across the country. “It’s now been confirmed in Hart Intercivic, in 2006. In Dominion. They’ve admitted it. And ES&S, according to the Illinois Board of Elections, has also got it in there. ES&S counts about 60 percent of the votes in the U.S. So it is actually pretty pervasive.”
“We are putting our whole system at risk,” warns Harris, about both “Fraction Magic” and the use of voting and tabulation systems that are difficult, if not impossible, for the public to oversee. “Sooner or later, if we keep running these mystery elections, there’s going to be something that is actually destabilizing, kind of a perfect storm. This is predictable. Sooner or later, when you keep running elections that are not accountable to the public, that are not something we can verify with actual evidence — i.e. ballots and ballot images — there’s going to be a meltdown that’s destabilizing. This is actually rather dangerous.”
Like you didn’t think you had enough to worry about between now and Election Day?
Finally, Desi Doyen joins us for the last Green News Report before Election Day, and we round up a few other last minute voting concerns in swing-states North Carolina and Ohio…
CLICK TO LISTEN OR DOWNLOAD SHOW!…
[audio:http://bradblog.com/audio/BradCast_BradFriedman_BevHarrisFractionMagic_DemsFightVoterSuppression_110416.mp3]
(Snail mail support to “Brad Friedman, 7095 Hollywood Blvd., #594 Los Angeles, CA 90028” always welcome too!)
|
Likely voter polls skew conservative. They are a good indicator in low turnout elections but are less reliable in high turnout elections that tend to favor Democrats.
Ernie @1:
That first link was from 2010 election, second from 2014. Both off year elections with neither including Trump. Id presume NOTHING this year. Trump on ticket could lead to huge D turnout in response (some evidence for that in early voting to date) OR for outperformance over polling for Trump due to the “Bradley Effect”. (If you supported Trump, would you want to tell a pollster about it?) Its just as likely his numbers could be much higher than appear in the pre-election polling.
Again, I’d take NOTHING for granted this year!
#2 Brad says:
(If you supported Trump, would you want to tell a pollster about it?)
I’ve been thinking about that oft-mentioned bane of pollsters where the poll-ee may be afraid he or she may be seen as voting on the basis of color or some such. I don’t know if those stricken with Trumpophilia are in the same class. Trying to force ourselves into the shoes of Trump supporters seems paradoxical.
One night I dreamt I was looking in the mirror but instead of my own head I had a weird reddish head with yellow eyes. When I woke up I said, “wait a minute, if I had another head wouldn’t I be someone else?” The memory of my otherwise terrifying nightmare was ruined by this bit of logic.
Since studies have shown that those predisposed to unquestioned authoritarianism–and by extension those who are Trump supporters–that they may be “wired” differently, would they even think of being the least bit ashamed of proudly proclaiming their support of Trump?
I don’t know, If some were appalled by Trump’s last straw of chronic misogyny last month, and finally renounced their ever-forgiving allegiance, there must be varying degrees of Trumpophilia. I can see how this condition could be a reason why some prospective Trump voters may not want to divulge their intent to pollsters after all.
Thanks for reading my train of thought as it goes around the bend.