{"id":14772,"date":"2023-09-05T18:24:50","date_gmt":"2023-09-06T01:24:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bradblog.com\/?p=14772"},"modified":"2023-09-05T18:50:37","modified_gmt":"2023-09-06T01:50:37","slug":"the-next-18-months-are-going-to-be-a-bumpy-ride-or-i-cant-fight-this-feeling-anymore-bradcast-952023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/?p=14772","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;The Next 18 Months Are Going to be a Bumpy Ride&#8217; (or, &#8216;I Can&#8217;t Fight This Feeling Anymore&#8217;): &#8216;BradCast&#8217; 9\/5\/2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/BradBlog.com\/Images\/BradCast_14thAmendSec3_090523.jpg\" hspace=\"6\" vspace=\"3\" border=\"0\" align=\"right\">We&#8217;re back! Both on today&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/BradBlog.com\/BradCast\"><i>BradCast<\/i><\/a> and even in L.A., after fleeing the state last month to avoid weeks of construction on the roof of the apartment housing our home studio. To no one&#8217;s surprise, the work is taking longer than we were told, so please pardon our efforts this week to work around it as best as possible after taking last week off to both avoid it and to enjoy the last days of Summer 2023 before the 2024 fight for Democracy (represented this year by Democrats) and Autocracy (represented by a lawless Republican party) begins in earnest.<\/p>\n<p>Among our stories today&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Enrique Tarrio<\/b>, former head of the far-right <b>Proud Boys<\/b> gang was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/justice-department\/enrique-tarrio-proud-boys-sentenced-jan-6-sedition-case-rcna103280\">sentenced<\/a> to 22 <i>year<\/i> in federal prison on Tuesday following his conviction for Seditious Conspiracy for his role in the January 6th, 2021 U.S. Capitol insurrection. It&#8217;s the longest sentence for any of the MAGA insurrectionists to date. Also, of note, Tarrio wasn&#8217;t even <i>in<\/i> Washington D.C. that day. Point taken: One didn&#8217;t need to be personally smashing windows and storming the Capitol to be held to serious account for what happened that day. Got it. Hopefully other jurors in other upcoming related cases will get it as well.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The federal Courts are still holding. Mostly. For now. On Tuesday, a <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/alabama-redistricting-ruling-black-population-affd7b662f65b0b28da42fb88f72207e\">three-judge panel found<\/a> that <b>Alabama<\/b> Republicans blatantly defied an order from the U.S. Supreme Court to add another Black-majority district to their U.S. House map. The SCOTUS order to do so &#8212; after <a href=\"https:\/\/bradblog.com\/?p=14686\">finding the state violated<\/a> both the U.S. Constitution and Voting Rights Act with their racially gerrymandered districts &#8212;  came in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.supremecourt.gov\/opinions\/22pdf\/21-1086_1co6.pdf\"><i>Allen v. Milligan<\/i> [PDF] <\/a> in early June. Alabama didn&#8217;t care. In an unprecedented move, they gave the finger to the Court and drew up a new map with the very same deficiencies featuring just one Black-majority district out of seven, in a state where some 27% of residents are Black. The federal court panel has now assigned a Special Master to draw U.S. House districts for the state, after a lawless Gov. <b>Kay Ivey<\/b> joined with lawless legislators in the gerrymandered statehouse to defy SCOTUS, the Rule of Law and the U.S. Constitution. Alabama is now <a href=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/news\/alabama-redistricting-maps-supreme-court\">appealing<\/a> the ruling to the same U.S. Supreme Court Justices who rejected their arguments barely three months ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The story is similar in authoritarian Governor and Presidential candidate <b>Ron DeSantis<\/b>&#8216; lawless state of <b>Florida<\/b> this weekend. In this case, a state court judge on Saturday <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/632577-judge-strikes-down-florida-congressional-map-orders-legislative-redraw\/\">ordered the state legislature<\/a> to draw a new U.S. House map restoring a Black-majority district in Northern Florida that DeSantis had <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/florida-redistricting-politics-gerrymandering-desantis-d04d4d69a5c52e2997e94fa842f8757e\">personally ordered<\/a> state lawmakers to break into pieces and divvy up its Black voters into White Republican districts. The weekend&#8217;s court order would seem to be good news. However, the State will now appeal the ruling directly to its Supreme Court where DeSantis has hand-picked a majority of the Justices. As we have long been warning, the fight between Democracy and Autocracy (or Fascism, as one of our longtime listeners insists), continues into 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Next, I finally catch up with a bunch of news on a growing story &#8212; some of which we&#8217;ve been discussing over the past two years &#8212; that I&#8217;ve otherwise been trying to get to for weeks, but for all of the various indictments, hurricanes, wildfires, debates, etc. continually sidetracking me. The news has to do with the continuing <i>feeling<\/i> I have that <b>Donald Trump<\/b> will ultimately <i>not<\/i> be on the ballot come next November. As noted, that&#8217;s not a prediction or an inside scoop. It&#8217;s simply a <i>feeling<\/i> for now, but one that I can&#8217;t shake as an increasingly swelling body of evidence seems to support its possibility.\n<p>Today, that evidence includes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2023\/08\/17\/trump-2024-republican-support-polling\/70608979007\/\">polling last month<\/a> finding nearly two-thirds of Americans say they will either &#8220;definitely&#8221; (53%) or &#8220;probably&#8221; (11%) not support Trump in 2024. Might such numbers begin to grab the notice of Republican Primary voters? (So far, the answer is largely no. But we&#8217;ve got a long way to go &#8212; and a lot of criminal trials &#8212; before the GOP&#8217;s nominating convention next July.) There are already a number of high profile Republicans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2023\/aug\/21\/bill-cassidy-trump-drop-out-2024\">calling on Trump to drop out<\/a> of the race or <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/blogs\/blog-briefing-room\/news\/4160866-hutchinson-says-trump-may-not-qualify-to-be-president-citing-14th-amendment\/\">noting<\/a> that he very well may be Constitutionally disqualified entirely from the ballot.<\/p>\n<p>It is that part of this story today &#8212; disqualification from the ballot via <a href=\"https:\/\/constitution.congress.gov\/browse\/amendment-14\/section-3\/\">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment<\/a> of the U.S. Constitution for his role in the January 6 Insurrection &#8212; that we focus on today. Namely, the far-right, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Federalist_Society\"><i>Federalist Society<\/i><\/a> legal scholars who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alternet.org\/immediate-disqualification-conservative-law-professors\/\">recently issued<\/a> a <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4532751\">126-page law review paper [PDF]<\/a> finding Trump to be Constitutionally ineligible for the ballot &#8212; &#8220;cannot be president &#8212; cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office&#8221; &#8212; due to his roll in the January 6 insurrection.<\/p>\n<p>And now, there is a host of state Secretaries of State &#8212; both Republican and Democratic &#8212; around the country who are currently or soon to be <a href=\"https:\/\/talkingpointsmemo.com\/news\/trump-14th-amendment-hutchinson-republican\">grappling<\/a> with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azcentral.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2023\/08\/30\/adrian-fontes-donald-trump-cant-be-barred-2024-arizona-ballot\/70664123007\/\">decision<\/a> as to whether Trump is even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2023\/08\/30\/new-hampshire-donald-trump-ballot-fourteenth-amendment\/70704414007\/\">eligible<\/a> to be on their state ballots in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Among those Secretary of State&#8217;s discussed today, after they recently offered various opinions on the matter: <b>New Hampshire&#8217;s David Scanlan<\/b> (R); <b>Ohio&#8217;s Frank LaRose<\/b> (R); <b>Arizona&#8217;s Adrian Fontes<\/b> (D), <b>New Mexico&#8217;s Maggie Toulouse Oliver<\/b> (D); <b>Maine&#8217;s Shenna Bellows<\/b> (D) and <b>Michigan&#8217;s Jocelyn Benson<\/b> (D). (Benson gets credit for the first part of today&#8217;s headline. REO Speedwagon gets credit for the alternate hed.)<\/p>\n<p>I welcome your <i>feelings<\/i> on this matter as well. Feel free to <a href=\"mailto:BradCast@BradBlog.com\">drop me an email<\/a> or a note in comments and perhaps I&#8217;ll share it on air in the days ahead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Finally, Desi Doyen is back as well, of course, with <a href=\"https:\/\/bradblog.com\/?p=14771\">our latest <i>Green News Report<\/i><\/a>, catching up with a bunch of stuff we missed while we were out, and as the <b>Summer of Climate Disasters<\/b> turns to&#8230;well, most likely the Autumn of Climate Disasters&#8230;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\".\/Images\/Speaker_Icon_24.png\" style=\"width: 24px; float: none; vertical-align: middle;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; line-height: 18px;\"> <b><i><a href=\"https:\/\/BradBlog.com\/audio\/BradCast_BradFriedman-Tarrio22Yrs-RacialGerrymandersAL-FL-OfficialsOnTrumpDisqualification_090523.mp3\">CLICK TO LISTEN OR DOWNLOAD SHOW!&#8230;<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><center><b>* * *<\/b><\/center><i>While we post <a href=\"https:\/\/BradBlog.com\/BradCast\"><\/i>The BradCast<i><\/a> here every day, and you can hear it across all of our great affiliate stations and websites, to automagically get new episodes as soon as they&#8217;re available sent right to your computer or personal device, subscribe for free at <a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-bradcast-w-brad-friedman\/id803467610\">iTunes<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pandora.com\/podcast\/the-bradcast-w-brad-friedman\/PC:1000025838\">Pandora<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/tunein.com\/radio\/The-BradCast-with-Brad-Friedman-p477565\/\">TuneIn<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.google.com\/feed\/aHR0cHM6Ly9icmFkYmxvZy5jb20vcG9kY2FzdGdlbi9icmFkY2FzdC9mZWVkLnhtbA\">Google<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/The-BradCast-w-Brad-Friedman\/dp\/B08JJRN86R\/ref=sr_1_1\">Amazon<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/bradblog.com\/podcastgen\/bradcast\/feed.xml\">our native RSS feed<\/a>!<\/i><\/p>\n<p><center><i><b>* * *<\/b><\/i><\/center><center><\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr style=\"background: blue; color:white;\">\n<td width=\"50%\"><center><span class=\"footnote\"><b>MONTHLY BRAD BLOG SUBSCRIPTION<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"50%\"><center><span class=\"footnote\"><b>ONE-TIME DONATION<\/b><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid blue;\"><center><\/p>\n<form action=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr\" method=\"post\" target=\"_top\" style=\"margin-top:-3em; margin-bottom:2em;text-align:center;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"cmd\" value=\"_s-xclick\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"hosted_button_id\" value=\"9PMSTMCJK9B3E\"><\/p>\n<table>\n<tr>\n<td><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"on0\" value=\"Choose monthly amount...\">Choose monthly amount&#8230;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><select name=\"os0\"><option value=\"$10\">$10 : $10.00 USD &#8211; monthly<\/option><option value=\"$20\">$20 : $20.00 USD &#8211; monthly<\/option><option value=\"$50\">$50 : $50.00 USD &#8211; monthly<\/option><option value=\"$100\">$100 : $100.00 USD &#8211; monthly<\/option><\/select> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"currency_code\" value=\"USD\"><input type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypalobjects.com\/en_US\/i\/btn\/btn_subscribe_LG.gif\" border=\"0\" name=\"submit\" alt=\"PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypalobjects.com\/en_US\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><\/form>\n<p><\/center><\/td>\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid blue;\"><center><\/p>\n<form action=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr\" method=\"post\" target=\"_top\" style=\"margin-top:0em; margin-bottom:2em;text-align:center;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"cmd\" value=\"_s-xclick\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"hosted_button_id\" value=\"K5A5LX7J6WTHQ\"><input type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypalobjects.com\/en_US\/i\/btn\/btn_donateCC_LG.gif\" border=\"0\" name=\"submit\" alt=\"PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypalobjects.com\/en_US\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><\/form>\n<div class=\"footnote\">(Snail mail support to <b>&#8220;Brad Friedman, 7095 Hollywood Blvd., #594 Los Angeles, CA 90028<\/b>&#8221; always welcome too!)<\/div>\n<p><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;re back! Both on today&#8217;s BradCast and even in L.A., after fleeing the state last month to avoid weeks of construction on the roof of the apartment housing our home studio. To no one&#8217;s surprise, the work is taking longer than we were told, so please pardon our efforts this week to work around it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[675,543,1910,479,969,1611,548,883,510,1391,1110,1590,1290,1464,477,1909,1572,771,1238,1912,517],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bradcast","category-climate-change","category-david-scanlan","category-donald-trump","category-election-2020","category-election-2024","category-extreme-weather","category-fascism","category-federalist-society","category-frank-larose","category-gerrymandering","category-insurrection","category-jocelyn-benson","category-kay-ivey","category-kpfk","category-maggie-toulouse-oliver","category-proud-boys","category-race","category-ron-desantis","category-shenna-bellows","category-voting-rights-act"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14772\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bbnewdb.webbyspice.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}