Guest Blogged by Alan Breslauer
University of Pennsylvania professor Steve Freeman, author of the important book, Was The 2004 Presidential Election Stolen?: Exit Polls, Election Fraud, and the Official Count, sat down with The BRAD BLOG at the 2nd Annual National Latino Congreso in Los Angeles on Friday.
Below are clips from our video interview with Freeman, broken down into five easy viewing segments, including his contention that his initial investigations into electronic voting led him to believe “There has to be some safeguard, it can’t be this easy to corrupt. But it is. Even worse. If you haven’t looked into this it is worse than you can possibly imagine.”
The video clips, and text snippets of his answers to our questions, all follow below…
Who won the 2004 presidential election? – Freeman’s short answer: John Kerry. He explains that while the official vote count gave George W. Bush a narrow margin of victory in Ohio of 120,000 votes and a slim electoral win, exit poll data indicates that Kerry actually won Ohio by 500,000 votes and won the national vote by a 6 million vote margin.
More video Q&A’s follow below…
What is the significance of the November 2004 Ukraine exit polls and the 1992 presidential election exit polls? – Says Freeman: “The incredible irony is that at the same time members of the administration were saying the exit polls indicate fraud in the Ukraine — undersecretary of state John Tefft was giving testimony saying that exit polls are one of the few reliable measures for showing mass scale election fraud. At the same time, Ed Gillespie, the head of the Republican National Committee, was speaking before the press conference saying that the press should abandon exit polls, they don’t work anymore.”
As a professor of business management, did you have any interest in election integrity issues prior to 2004? And what can individuals do to learn about election integrity issues? – Freeman: “It wasn’t until 2004 when I really investigated the system and just, absolutely stunned. At first I thought I must not understand this. I looked at electronic voting and I said, well there has to be some safeguard, it can’t be this easy to corrupt. But it is. Even worse. If you haven’t looked into this it is worse than you can possibly imagine.”
Why do we have voting machines and is there a solution to our election problems? – Freeman: “It is funny to hear myself speak like a radical on this issue. I’ve spent my life starting businesses and teaching in such radical institutions as Harvard Business School system and Wharton. Running businesses, starting businesses and teaching business school students. But when you are talking about privatizing elections you are really giving up the security we have that elections are unfettered and free.”
What can individuals do to help ensure fair elections? – Freeman: “The key fact is that this is not a hypothetical threat. It has happened. Elections have been stolen. Read my book, Read Fitrakis’s book, read BRAD BLOG and learn what is happening.”
Truth IS radical!
Nice coverage Alan! Don’t forget, we need to get the names of those lawyers who showed up.
Dude. Good work.
To Brad and Steve:
Steve is correct: the exit polls were biased for Bush; therefore the WPDs (WPEs) are even higher than those reported by Edison-Mitofsky which produce a Kerry vote share range from 51.8 to 52.15%, depending on which WPD method is used (see below).
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#LateVotes
The Election Calculator model analysis shows that Kerry won by 10 million votes.
This analysis of the final 5 million recorded votes is the clincher (Kerry won 53%). Thats a pretty damn big sample size.
Note the strong statistical correlation between the state exit polls and the corresponding late recorded vote shares.
Reconciling the Final 5 Million Vote Anomaly: Further confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
The 12% difference in margin between the initial 117 million recorded votes (Bush 51-Kerry 48%) and the final (late) 5.0m (Kerry 53-Bush 44%) caused a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). Was this due to the fact that the election was already decided at the 117m mark and vote-rigging was no longer necessary? Late votes (absentees, etc.) were irrelevant as soon as Bush was declared the winner. Many still recall that the day after the election the media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes, and remain unaware of the 5.0m late votes. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.
Kerry’s 52.98% share (2.65 of the 5.01m late votes) of the 122.29m recorded total is 64.79m. Adding his 75% share of uncounted votes (2.58 of 3.45m) brings his final total to 67.37m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that Kerry won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) less mortality and assumed a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the national vote.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. After removing states (denoted by * below) which had fewer than 10k late votes and skewed the deviations, the correlation statistic is 0.82.
This is further evidence that the “pristine” exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to the initial recorded
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?
Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine†state exit polls were close to the True vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.
Final Recorded Vote:
Bush 62,040,610 50.73%
Kerry 59,028,439 48.27%
Other 1,224,499 1.00%
Total 122,293,548 100%
Initial 117.28m votes:
Bush 59,834,866 51.02%
Kerry 56,373,514 48.07%
Other 1,073,874 0.91%
Total 117,282,254 100%
Late 5.01m votes:
Bush 2,205,744 44.02%
Kerry 2,654,925 52.98%
Other 150,625 3.00%
Total 5,011,294 100
Best,
TruthIsAll
GREAT JOB, Alan!~SO happy to find Dr. Freeman on bradblog today, as he is one of my favorite humans.
I had the opportunity to hear him speak last January at the NATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR MEDIA REFORM in Memphis, and was blown away/ horrified/ distraught/ oddly relieved/ then healed by what he told us. (I guess five stages of election fraud awareness–might be more, I’m no psychologist.) FASCINATING horrors he detailed for us in statistics–woke me right up. Dr. Steve Freeman had me from “Hello, the 2004 Election was Stolen and here’s the DATA…”
His book “How the 2004 Election was Stolen…” was selected as one of PROJECT CENSORED’s top picks as one of the most critically important, yet unheralded, under reported stories of 2006.
…I’ll say.
Keep up the good work, Alan~thanks for posting this.
(Dr. Freeman’s speech at the MEDIA REFORM CONFERENCE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbysi62oFCc
related: NCMR 2007: EDA Co-Founder Jonathan Simon asks the DNC…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q40EOvo6jaE )
Ohio Exit Poll/ Late votes
There were 176,000 late votes in recorded in Ohio (5.6 million total). Kerry won 81,000 late votes (56% of the two-party vote).
The unadjusted Ohio exit poll had Kerry winning by 54.2%.
The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won Ohio by 470,000 votes.
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#Ohio
It never ceases to amaze me why the election was certified with such data. Why Kerry threw in the towel less than 24 hours after the election? I believe Conyers stood alone to question the election. With all the blogging at that time,that’s the disgusting part – the election should never have been certified!
Gets my dander up all over again. Who knew the fraud was this massive? And there have been NO investigations. Thanks, Dems, continue fiddling…
And Kerry KNOWS this and yet remains silent. Why? Was he threatened? Did his handlers tell him the media would savage him if he fought for truth? Will he even find his spine again and speak out?
Advil time…
Alan and Brad:
Thank you for continuing to expose the theft of our country. In case anyone doesn’t know, I thought that I would mention that Congress still has bills pending which would ensure that future elections can be fixed without any problems. Here is more information on that and how you can take action to restore election integrity: http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_mark_ada_070919_how_to_take_action_o.htm
Please keep up the good work!
Yep, and Kerry took a dive anyway. Nobody pulls that many punches yet shoots themself in the foot like that that’s trying to win. The whole thing appears to have been decided beforehand.